Heavy rains are likely to come up for the state of Rajasthan over the next three days. Some places are expected to have sharp showers today as well. However, the spread and intensity will increase tomorrow, and the heavy rainfall belt will keep shifting till mid-week. There will be a risk of localized flooding and disruption of normal life.
The entire state of Rajasthan is already rain surplus this monsoon season. West Rajasthan is about 100% excess, and East Rajasthan, only a whisker less, at 97% rainfall for the season between 01st June and 28th July. The landscape seems to be saturated, and any further downpour may do more harm than good for many districts. It is good that the south and southwestern parts, like Baran, Pratapgarh, Rajsamand, Banswara, Chittorgarh, and Jhalawar, will escape another round of the fury of monsoon.
A low-pressure area associated with cyclonic circulation is marked over Northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan. The weather system will move westward and come further closer to the state of Rajasthan in the next 24 hours. The remnant of the low pressure will keep meandering over the northern half of the state for the subsequent 48 hours. Therefore, a three-day spell of heavy to very heavy rains is likely over the state, and a broad clearance can be expected on 01st August and later.
Tomorrow, extreme northeastern parts of the state will be vulnerable to heavy rains. The places at risk will include Khairthal, Deeg, Kotputli, Alwar, and Bharatpur. The adjacent parts of Haryana, covering Palwal, Nuh, Rewari, Faridabad, and Gurugram, will also receive heavy to very heavy rainfall. On 30th July, the heavy rainfall belt will stretch further and reach Bharatpur, Alwar, Jaipur, Dholpur, Dausa, Karauli, and Sikar. Subsequently, on 31st July, the weather system may weaken a bit but remain good enough to cause heavy rainfall over the extreme northern parts of the state. The places at risk will include Ganganagar, Suratgarh, Anupgarh, Hanumangarh, Mahajan, Jhunjhunu, Churu, and Bikaner. Thereafter, the first 4–5 days of August will find only mild rainfall over most parts of the state. La Nina Update: EQSOI - A Better Representation Of Equatorial Circulation
