The coastal city of Mumbai on the Konkan Coast has remained dormant during the month of July. Otherwise, July is the rainiest month with a normal rainfall of 840.7mm. The airport observatory Santacruz has recorded 283.4mm rainfall between 01st and 18th July. The month of June was able to catch up with the monthly normal of 493.1mm rainfall. Between 01st June and 18th July, Mumbai city has a deficit of 25% and Mumbai Suburban has a shortfall of 23% rainfall. Mostly, this large deficit is on account of poor rainfall in July.
July has an outstanding track record of July rainfall. For the last 9 successive years, July rainfall exceeded the normal and that too, by a huge margin in seven of these years. Also, in 2023 and 2024, the month of July recorded more than double the normal rainfall. July 2023 amassed a total of 1705mm rainfall and surpassed the earlier all-time high of 1502.6mm rainfall recorded in July 2020. The lowest monthly rainfall of the last ten years was 359.1mm in July 2015.
The record observatory of the city, Santacruz has not recorded any measurable rainfall during the last 48 hours. Weather activity is likely to remain quiet for the next three days and pick up thereafter. Moderate rainfall, embedded with isolated heavy showers, is likely between 22nd and 27th July 2025. It may not be a typical heavy Mumbai rainfall of three digits in 24 hours, but the jinx of the lean phase will break and decent showers will lash the city and suburbs.
A fresh monsoon system is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal, around mid-week next. A low-pressure area may form over Northeast Bay of Bengal on 23rd July or so. This is likely to get organized and become stronger too, in the subsequent 48 hours. The formation of the system and its travel inside the mainland will intensify the westerly monsoon stream along the Konkan Coast. Fairly widespread moderate to heavy rains are likely from mid-week next onward. Since the model accuracy drops beyond 4–5 days, the forecast will be reviewed as on required basis and shared at the earliest.
