The states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are both rain surplus so far this season. Himachal Pradesh was ravaged by inclement weather conditions during the last week.
Courtesy of the monsoon trough and the western disturbance, both mountainous states are likely to experience another spell of disturbing heavy rains, commencing soon and lasting until mid-week next. Visitors are advised to exercise caution and stay alert to weather advisories.
The monsoon trough in the lower levels is north of its normal position, remaining in close proximity to the foothills of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Also, a western disturbance as an upper air trough is moving across the northern mountains. Under the combined influence of these systems, intense weather activity is likely over the hilly states between 12th and 16th July. Even within this window, peak weather activity is expected on 13th and 14th July.
The cyclonic circulation of the remnant low-pressure area over Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh is tracking westward. It is likely to move over West Madhya Pradesh and Southeast Rajasthan. The associated change in the wind pattern will drag the monsoon trough southward. So, initially, oscillation of the trough and later its southward drift will impact weather activity over Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Between the two, Uttarakhand will face a higher risk of hazardous weather activity.
As such, with frequent and incessant rains in the past, the landscape is saturated. The water bodies already have near-full capacity. Rivers, streams, dams, and reservoirs will find it difficult to accommodate a large volume of additional water. The catchment areas remain unpredictable due to the difficult terrain. The treacherous terrain and uneven gradient become highly susceptible to intensifying weather perturbations. Under these conditions, it is advisable to exercise utmost caution to avert any eventuality.
