Warm And Humid Weekend For Mumbai, Sultry Weather Next Week As Well

February is the last of the pleasant winter months for Mumbai. It starts heating up in March and the precursors, at times, become visible at the end of February itself. Yesterday, the day temperature at 32.8°C was above normal by about 2°C. Humidity levels also remained fairly high, which added to the discomfort. However, the minimum temperatures remained in the mid and high teens, well within the normal range, for the last one week.

The coastal city of Mumbai remains free from any wintry weather activity from December to February. The city stays at a safe distance from the western disturbances of the North and also on the far outer peripheries of disturbances moving across the South Peninsula. The major twist in the weather conditions is on account of surface and low-level winds, which control the temperature and humidity, both. Persistent land and sea breeze phenomena dictate the comfort levels, depending upon the direction and speed of westerly winds from the sea.

Courtesy, frequent passage of western disturbances across the northern mountains, the seasonal anticyclone over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh has got pushed far to the east, over South Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Vidarbha and Odisha. These westerly systems are mostly weak and therefore spare the plains of north of any significant rainfall activity. Yet, these are good enough to alter the wind pattern, resulting in changes in the temperature and humidity levels.

With the displaced anticyclone, the cold wind flow from the northern plains has been arrested. The winds are likely to have more of an easterly and southeasterly component, blowing across Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra, to reach the Konkan region. Additionally, an unseasonal anticyclonic flow off the Konkan Coast from the Arabian Sea is triggering disruption of normal wind patterns. Under the combined influence of these features, the onset of the sea breeze is likely to get delayed. The longer the stay of the land breeze during forenoon/afternoon hours, higher becomes the day temperature. Even an extension of a mere one hour can lead to a rise of about 3°C. The rise in the day temperature gets arrested after the onset of the sea breeze. The strength of the sea winds further decides the soothing effect in the evening hours. Disruption of the normal wind pattern and delay in the onset of sea breeze are likely to trigger warmer and sultry conditions. The maximum temperature may breach 36°C between 07th and 09th Feb 2025. Similar conditions are likely to spill over to the next week, as well.