Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Under the influence of a persisting cyclonic circulation, a low pressure area has formed over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal. The cyclonic circulation extends up to higher levels, tilting southwest with height. The system is likely to become a well-marked low pressure shortly over the same region. Subsequently, the low pressure will move west-northwest slowly, across north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south coastal Odisha. This will be a slow-moving system and is likely to meander over the coastal states for the next 3–4 days.
An east–west oriented trough is running from the center of circulation to north Madhya Maharashtra, across north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Vidarbha. The convergence zone, all along this trough, will trigger weather activity on either flank of the trough. Active to vigorous monsoon conditions are likely over the eastern, central, and western parts of the country, albeit in a staggered manner, over the next 3–4 days.
To start with, heavy rains are likely today over south Odisha, north Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and south Chhattisgarh. The heavy rainfall belt will extend and cover parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra tomorrow and the day after. The peripherals of activity will reach the outer parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat on 16th and 17th August. In the meantime, there is another weather system entering the Bay of Bengal from the Gulf of Martaban of Myanmar on 16th August 2025. This is likely to become strong enough the next day, possibly a depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal. The remnant of the earlier low pressure meandering over land will get subsumed, and a powerful monsoon system will evolve over the Bay of Bengal.
Since the models’ accuracy lowers with a lead time of 4–5 days, the meteorological conditions will be kept under watch and reviewed. With the emergence of a fresh monsoon system, the ‘break monsoon’ conditions have ended with immediate effect, and the monsoon revival is underway. Localized flooding rains are likely during the next one week, tracking across Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa, and Gujarat in a phased manner. A more intense and powerful deluge is expected at the start of next week. Exercise caution.
