How strong could El Nino become in 2026?

El Nino is expected to strengthen further during the coming months, with global forecast models strongly favouring a very strong event during late 2026.

Does a stronger El Nino automatically mean a weaker Indian monsoon?

No. El Nino intensity alone does not determine its impact on the Indian monsoon. The location of Pacific warming and its interaction with other atmospheric and oceanic drivers are also critical.

Can a positive IOD offset the impact of El Nino on India's monsoon?

A positive IOD can influence Indian monsoon rainfall, but its eventual impact depends on its timing, magnitude and interaction with El Nino and other atmospheric conditions.

El Nino Retains Strength: IOD-MJO Offer Least Assistance

By: AVM GP Sharma | Edited By: Arti Kumari

Aug 22, 2026, 8:15 PM

Representational Image: AI-Skymet

Key Takeaways:

El Nino is strengthening rapidly and is expected to evolve into a very strong event during the September-November 2026 period.
Exceptional Pacific Ocean warming and record-high subsurface heat underline the unusual magnitude of the ongoing event.
A positive IOD may develop alongside El Nino, although uncertainty remains over its timing and eventual strength.
Weak MJO conditions and unfavourable ocean parameters are unlikely to support any significant revival of Indian monsoon activity in the immediate term.
Forecast Validity: Until Next El Nino Update.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is based on Skymet’s proprietary weather database, internal forecast models, station observations, climatological datasets, and expert meteorological interpretation by the Skymet Weather team. While every effort is made to ensure scientific accuracy, weather conditions are dynamic and may evolve over time. This assessment is intended for informational purposes and should not be considered an absolute or guaranteed prediction.

Skymet is India’s most accurate private weather forecasting and climate intelligence company, providing reliable weather data, monsoon updates, and agri-risk management solutions across the country.