The low-pressure area over West Bengal moved westward and intensified into a depression. The weather system is centered north of Dhanbad in Jharkhand. The depression will move west-northwest and get positioned over the trijunction of Bihar, Jharkhand, and East Uttar Pradesh in the next 24 hours. Its peripheral region will include North Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over these states in the next 48 hours. Subsequently, the heavy rainfall belt will travel to the farther parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
There is another low-pressure area over Rajasthan associated with a well-marked cyclonic circulation. The monsoon trough is connecting these two systems, and all three together are complementing each other to sustain the weather activity. Vigorous monsoon conditions are likely, albeit in a staggered manner, over the eastern states, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and partly over Rajasthan.
On 15th and 16th July, active monsoon conditions will prevail over West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand. The southern half of Bihar state will get the bigger share. The next day, on 17th July, the intense weather activity will extend to cover parts of East Madhya Pradesh, border areas of Uttar Pradesh, and North Chhattisgarh. The ravaging weather conditions will shift further westward and affect central and north Madhya Pradesh and southwest Uttar Pradesh. Even parts of East Rajasthan will fall on the outer periphery of fierce weather activity.
The severe weather activity will cover many parts of the eastern, central, and northern parts of the country. The places at risk will include Purulia, Bankura, Malda, Berhampore, Bardhaman, Birbhum, Nadia, Murshidabad, and Midnapore. Over Bihar and Jharkhand, the heavy rains will lash Buxar, Rohtas, Bhabua, Aurangabad, Gaya, Nawada, Jamui, Banka, Jehanabad, Bhagalpur, Arrah, Patna, Samastipur, Khagaria, Garhwa, Palamu, Hazaribagh, Bokaro, Ranchi, Gumla, Khunti, and Jamshedpur. The contiguous states of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan will bear the risk of strong activity at Sagar, Rewa, Satna, Chhatarpur, Jabalpur, Bhopal, Gwalior, Guna, Shivpuri, Bhind, Morena, Datia, Tikamgarh, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Prayagraj, Varanasi, Kanpur, Lucknow, Jaipur, Ajmer, Kota, Bundi, Tonk, Baran, Alwar, Sikar, and Dholpur. West Rajasthan and Gujarat will witness the least weather activity during this spell of inclement conditions.
