NLM Stalls On Either End: Monsoon Progress Slow And Sluggish
Sat Image: Mosdac.gov.in
Key Takeaways:
- Southwest monsoon has stalled over Konkan and Bihar for nearly a week.
- Mumbai has recorded negligible rainfall against its June normal of 526.3 mm.
- Monsoon advancement over Gujarat, Saurashtra and East Uttar Pradesh is expected to remain delayed.
- India’s overall rainfall deficit has reached 35%, with Central India worst affected.
The southwest monsoon has been keeping a languid pace for the last about one week. The western end of NLM (Northern Limit of Monsoon) is stalled and has not moved beyond Harnai (Konkan) since 08th June. Even the eastern end has remained stationary at Muzaffarpur (Bihar) since 12th June. The monsoon is unlikely to advance on either shore for the next about 5 days. Even thereafter, the monsoon will remain ‘sleepy’ and keep meandering at the respective ends.
The monsoon onset over Mumbai has been delayed. Airport observatory Santacruz has recorded just a sprinkle over the last two weeks. The total rainfall so far has been negligible, against the monthly normal of 526.3 mm. It appears to be heading for the lowest recorded rainfall during the month. Mumbai may get light rainfall around 24th/25th June, but it may not suffice the typical monsoon standards of Mumbai. Its further progress over South Coastal Gujarat and Saurashtra is doubtful, and substantial delay is expected.
On the eastern side, the monsoon stream has covered some parts of Bihar and Jharkhand, albeit as a very weak current. There is no likelihood of strong bursts of monsoon during the next one week or even more. The monsoon arrival is likely to overshoot its normal date of 20th June for East Uttar Pradesh. Overall, the advance of monsoon over the central and eastern parts is going to be very weak and slow as well.
The southwest monsoon season has been rain deficient by 35% between 01st and 16th June 2026. The shortfall is likely to grow further. The central region of the country is having the largest deficit of 61% rainfall, followed by the East & Northeast region with 43% rainfall deficiency. Even the South Peninsula, where the monsoon arrived first and remained active for a few days, is having a shortage of 14% rainfall. Only Northwest India, where pre-monsoon activity has been continuing, is rain surplus, albeit with a small margin of 5%.
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