Southwest Monsoon has weakened over the last about 3–4 days. Countrywide rainfall has reduced significantly over the last two days. Pan-India rainfall on 09th Sep was 4.2 mm against a normal of 6.1 mm. The actual rainfall dropped further to 2.3 mm, against a normal of 6.0 mm on 10th Sep. The seasonal rainfall also reduced from 109% to 108% (107.8%) of LPA during this period. Less than normal rainfall is expected in the next 24 hours as well, and an uptick is likely thereafter.
Earlier, there was a cyclonic circulation over Northwest Bay of Bengal which has now shifted to coastal parts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. This is likely to reorganize and become more marked over the same area in the next 24 hours. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over West-Central Bay of Bengal, off the Andhra Pradesh coast on 12th September. Its subsequent movement over deep inland will invigorate the monsoon activity over eastern, central, southern, and western parts of the country.
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To start with, the convergence zone of circulation will give scattered moderate rainfall over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Vidarbha region on 11th Sep. Next two days, the low-pressure area will move inland and usher in fairly widespread, moderate to heavy rainfall over Karnataka, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, and South Madhya Pradesh bordering Maharashtra region. Heavy rainfall belt will later shift to Konkan & Goa, including Mumbai, and Madhya Maharashtra, including Pune.
The associated circulation of the low-pressure area will keep meandering over central parts of Maharashtra and neighborhood, keeping a safe distance from the West Coast. Later, its interaction with the westerly system will extend the rainfall belt to Gujarat, Rajasthan, and other northern plains between 16th and 20th Sep 2025. Since the model performance reduces with a lead time of 4–5 days, the forecast will be reviewed after the weather system moves inland.
