The Southwest Monsoon has remained quite active over the central parts of the country. Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat have been repeatedly lashed with intense weather activity. The monsoon low and cyclonic circulation from the Bay of Bengal have tracked along Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
West Madhya Pradesh has recorded a large excess of 68% rainfall, and East Madhya Pradesh is surplus with 33% between 01st June and 02nd July 2025. More heavy showers are likely for the state of Madhya Pradesh.
The remnant of the low pressure was earlier marked as a cyclonic circulation over the Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh region. This circulation has now merged with another one lying over North Odisha, Jharkhand, and the neighbouring West Bengal region. An elongated east-west trough is extending from Odisha to Rajasthan. An associated shear zone between the easterly and westerly winds is marked roughly along the Tropic of Cancer, passing across the states of West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The circulation over Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh will consolidate and move along this axis. The heavy rainfall belt will also shift from east to west and is likely to become slow and stationary over central parts of Madhya Pradesh.
Daily Forecast: Weather update and forecast for July 04 across India
The intense weather activity will reach Madhya Pradesh on 05th July 2025. The entire state will be at risk of widespread vigorous monsoon activity, but the central and eastern parts will be more vulnerable. Heavy to very heavy rains are likely between 05th and 08th July 2025. The locations that need to watch out for copious and damaging rains include Jabalpur, Narsinghpur, Hoshangabad, Betul, Sehore, Shajapur, Raisen, Bhopal, Vidisha, Sagar, Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh, and Ashoknagar. Localized flooding is quite likely, inundating low-lying areas. The bad weather will be accompanied by powerful lightning, thunderstorms, and strong winds. The severe weather activity will further extend westward and reach parts of East Rajasthan on 08th and 09th July 2025. Major relief for the states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is likely on Saturday, 12th July, and later in the subsequent week ahead.
