Delhi, Haryana and Punjab May Have to Wait Longer for Monsoon Arrival
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- The Southwest Monsoon remains nearly a week behind schedule over northwest India.
- Delhi, Haryana and Punjab are likely to witness only isolated pre-monsoon showers over the next few days.
- A fresh monsoon push is expected during early July as weather conditions become more favourable.
- Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 7 days.
The wait for the Southwest Monsoon is set to continue across Delhi-NCR, Haryana and Punjab, as weather conditions remain unfavourable for its rapid advancement. While the monsoon has been making gradual progress over parts of central and eastern India, its march over northwest India continues to be delayed, leaving millions waiting for relief from the prevailing hot and humid weather.
As of June 26, the western arm of the monsoon has advanced only up to South Gujarat, while the eastern branch has reached North Bihar. Normally, by this date, the monsoon would have covered most parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and would have already reached Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and parts of Jammu & Kashmir. This places the current monsoon advance nearly a week behind its climatological schedule over northwest India.
Why is the Monsoon Delayed?
The delayed progress is primarily due to the absence of any strong synoptic weather system over central and northwest India. Although the monsoon current remains active over the west coast and northeastern states, it lacks the momentum required to advance further into the northwestern plains.
Another limiting factor is the relatively weak monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and the lack of a well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. Such systems usually strengthen the monsoon circulation and provide the necessary push for the monsoon to advance rapidly across northern India.
Rainfall to Remain Limited for the Next Few Days
During the next three to four days, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab are expected to witness only isolated pre-monsoon activities. Localised thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds and brief spells of rain may occur over a few places, particularly during the evening or night hours.
However, these showers will be scattered in nature and will not signify the onset of the Southwest Monsoon. Day temperatures may remain close to normal, while humidity levels are likely to stay high, resulting in uncomfortable weather conditions.
Fresh Monsoon Push Expected in Early July
Meteorological conditions are expected to improve towards the end of June and the beginning of July. Weather models indicate the possibility of a favourable synoptic system developing over the northwest Bay of Bengal, which could strengthen the monsoon current over eastern and central India.
As this system moves inland and the monsoon circulation intensifies, the Southwest Monsoon is expected to advance steadily across East Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and parts of Madhya Pradesh before moving further towards northwest India.
If these weather developments unfold as anticipated, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to reach Delhi, Haryana and Punjab around July 3 or July 4. A variation of one or two days cannot be ruled out, as the progress will depend on the strength and movement of the upcoming weather system.
Rainfall May Increase Significantly After Monsoon Arrival
Once the monsoon reaches northwest India, rainfall activity is expected to increase substantially. Widespread light to moderate rains, accompanied by a few heavy spells, are likely over Delhi-NCR, Haryana and Punjab during the first week of July.
The arrival of the monsoon will also bring a noticeable drop in day temperatures, increased cloud cover and much-needed relief from the prevailing heat and humidity. Farmers across the region are eagerly awaiting the monsoon, as timely rainfall is crucial for the sowing of Kharif crops such as paddy, maize and cotton.
Outlook
The Southwest Monsoon continues to lag behind its normal schedule over northwest India, and residents of Delhi-NCR, Haryana and Punjab will have to wait a few more days for its arrival. No significant monsoon advancement is expected over these regions during the next three to four days.
However, there are encouraging signs that the monsoon circulation will strengthen during the closing days of June. This is likely to facilitate a fresh phase of monsoon advancement during the first week of July, with July 3-4 emerging as the most probable window for the monsoon to reach Delhi, Haryana and Punjab.
Until then, intermittent pre-monsoon thunderstorms may provide temporary relief, but the widespread and sustained rainfall associated with the Southwest Monsoon is expected only in early July.
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