Desperate Wait For Monsoon Over Mumbai-Pune: Heavy Showers Unlikely For One Week
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Mumbai and Pune have not received significant monsoon rainfall so far this season.
- Water levels and reservoirs are depleting rapidly, increasing concerns over water scarcity.
- Dry weather conditions are likely to persist for at least the next 5 days.
- Moderate showers may develop over Mumbai between June 25 and June 27 if a Bay of Bengal circulation strengthens favourably.
- Forecast Validity: Next 5-7 days.
Mumbai and Pune continue to remain without meaningful monsoon rains this season, even as the normal onset dates of June 10 and June 11 respectively have already passed. Pune, Maharashtra’s second-largest city, has remained completely dry so far in June, while Mumbai is witnessing a similar situation with negligible rainfall activity.
The prolonged dry spell has started impacting water availability across the region. Water tables have dropped significantly and reservoirs as well as local water bodies are witnessing rapid depletion, raising concerns over the worsening water crisis. In several areas, water supply is already being rationed in an attempt to conserve resources. The delayed monsoon has left the Konkan region, particularly Mumbai and Pune, struggling under persistently hot and dry conditions.
Normally, activation of the seasonal trough along the West Coast and supportive monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal act as the primary triggers for widespread rainfall activity over the Konkan region and Mumbai. Once these systems become active, moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea strike the Western Ghats, resulting in heavy rainfall over coastal Maharashtra and spillover showers for Pune and adjoining areas.
However, at present, both these key weather systems remain weak or absent. There is hardly any significant atmospheric mechanism operating either over the Arabian Sea or inland regions to revive the monsoon flow along the Konkan Coast. As a result, Mumbai and Pune are expected to continue witnessing dry weather conditions for at least the next five days.
For adequate rainfall activity over the Konkan Coast, strong westerly winds from the Arabian Sea are required to strengthen and hit the coastline effectively. The orography of the Western Ghats then helps in lifting the moisture-laden winds, leading to cloud formation and widespread rainfall across the region. Unfortunately, such favourable conditions are currently missing.
There are early indications of a feeble cyclonic circulation developing over the North Bay of Bengal around June 25. Though the system does not appear very promising at this stage, any favourable evolution may help strengthen the westerly flow along the Konkan Coast. Under its influence, Mumbai may witness some moderate rain showers between June 25 and June 27, which could bring temporary relief from the prevailing dry spell.
Until then, Mumbai is likely to witness only occasional light drizzles or very light rain activity on isolated days, while Pune is expected to remain largely hot and dry. The overall monsoon outlook for the region continues to remain weak and uncertain in the near term.
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