Low-Pressure Area Forms Over Bay Of Bengal: Likely To Intensify
- Low pressure area has formed over Southwest Bay of Bengal near Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coast.
- The system may intensify into a depression during the next three days.
- Most weather models remain uncertain about long-term intensification and track.
- Conditions may support early monsoon advance over Southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
Under the influence of a persistent cyclonic circulation over Comorin region, a low pressure area has formed over Southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB), off North Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coast. The cyclonic circulation is extending up to the level of 20,000 feet. It is likely to strengthen further into a well-marked low pressure area and become a depression over the same region during the next about three days.
This is the time when pre-monsoon cyclonic storms form over the Bay of Bengal. However, the genesis of this weather system differs from the routine process. More often than not, weather systems originate over the South Andaman Sea or North Andaman Sea and move northwestward to gain strength and latitude. This low pressure is an in-situ formation and is located very close to the landmass of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. Also, there is no broad consensus among weather models regarding its sustenance or intensification. The low pressure area will need close monitoring for any further development.
There are precursors indicated by some models for intensification of the system into a depression during the next about three days. Once the system gains latitude, environmental conditions may become favourable for further intensification. However, climatology restricts the track of such systems from crossing the coastline of Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Most systems developing over this part of the Bay of Bengal tend to move away from the East Coast and shift deeper into the sea after intensification. Thereafter, the system may either intensify further and move towards Myanmar or Bangladesh, or weaken over the sea due to unfavourable environmental conditions.
Irrespective of the future track and intensity of the system, conditions are likely to remain favourable for fairly widespread rainfall activity over Southwest and South-Central Bay of Bengal. Strong cross-equatorial flow may also extend the southwesterly stream up to the South Andaman Sea and North Andaman Sea. These conditions are expected to support an early advance of monsoon over Southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
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