Monsoon Delay Over Gujarat Likely: Mercury Stays Above Forty Degrees
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Southwest monsoon has missed its normal June 15 onset date for South Gujarat
- Temperatures above 40°C are likely to persist across many parts of Gujarat
- No major weather systems are expected to support monsoon advancement soon
- Monsoon arrival over Gujarat may get delayed till the last week of June
The western arm of the southwest monsoon is stuck over the South Konkan Coast. The stream has weakened too, and rainfall activity is minimal over that area. Following stagnation over the Konkan region, the monsoon has missed its date of June 15 for South Gujarat. It is unlikely to reach the South Gujarat Coast anytime soon. Temperatures remain in the 40s at many places, including Ahmedabad, Rajkot, Bhavnagar and Vallabh Vidyanagar. No major change is expected over the next one week or even more.
The southwest monsoon normally arrives over South Coastal Gujarat on June 15 and covers the southern half of Saurashtra, Central Gujarat and North Gujarat by June 20. Thereafter, the progress slows down and it takes over two weeks to reach the last border post of Kutch. Under the prevailing meteorological conditions, an unduly long delay is expected for the monsoon over the interiors of the state.
The main trigger for the advance of monsoon over South and Central Gujarat remains the weather systems over the Bay of Bengal. The remnants of these systems, while moving across central parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat, pull the monsoon stream from the Arabian Sea to usher monsoon bursts. Also, any offshore cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea, keeping proximity with the coastline, can influence the seasonal rainfall over the state. However, none of these features appear likely over the next one week or so.
Arrival of monsoon is expected to get delayed, starting with South Gujarat and the coastline of Saurashtra. The drier winds will raise the mercury level to reach or exceed 40°C over the interiors of the state. Also, hot air is getting advected from across the border. The deeper areas of Sindh and Balochistan region of Pakistan are sizzling with extreme temperatures. Locations like Sibi, Nokkundi and Dal Bandin in Balochistan have recorded temperatures of 46°-47°C. Nawabshah, Rohri and Chhor in the Sindh region are also sweltering at 43°C. The passage of a western disturbance across the northern hilly states is fetching moist winds from the Arabian Sea and lowering the temperatures marginally over the state. However, no major relief is likely until the monsoon stream penetrates deep into the state. At best, the arrival may get extended to the last week of June 2026.
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