Delhi area has recorded double-digit minimum temperatures across the region. Base station Safdarjung recorded a low of 10.6°C, a shade above yesterday’s temperature of 10.4°C. The morning temperature has consistently remained close to 10°C and hovered between 10.2°C and 10.6°C for the last four days. These temperatures are below normal by about 2.5°–3°C, not amounting to cold wave conditions anywhere around the national capital.
As per pentad normal, Delhi starts with a low of 15°C and ends up with 10°C in the month of November. Cold wave condition in the plains is announced when the minimum temperature drops to 10°C or less and the actual temperature goes below the normal by 4.5° to 6.4°C. Severe cold wave strikes when the temperature plummets to 6.5°C or more below the normal. Also, a cold wave is declared when the minimum temperature drops to 4°C or less in the plains.
There is no active weather system likely to move across the mountains over the next 10 days. The passage of a Western Disturbance is the main trigger for a substantial drop in mercury levels. In the absence of any strong system, no sharp drop in the minimum temperature is likely. For cold wave conditions at this time, the temperature needs to dip below 8°C, which is highly unlikely. The minimum temperature is neither going to fall nor likely to rise significantly over the next 10 days. The variation of mercury levels will remain limited to ±1°C over the next one week. Thereafter, the seasonal progression by itself may lead to a further drop in temperature. During the last week of November, the minimum temperature should plunge below 7°C to qualify for cold wave criteria.
As a routine, Delhi does not witness cold wave conditions in the month of November. The capital city has not recorded any cold wave between 2021 and 2024. The last cold wave in November was registered in 2020. November 2020 was an outlier wherein the second half of the month recorded minimum temperatures of less than 10°C on eight days. The temperature had plunged to 7°C or less on five days in the last week of the month. The minimum temperature dropped to 6.3°C on 23 November 2020, the lowest for Delhi in the last two decades or so. That month recorded cold wave conditions on four days. No such conditions are likely to come up this month. Dry and cold winds from the mountain slopes will sweep the plains, including Delhi, with no scare of cold wave conditions likely during this month.
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