February Likely To Have Poor Rainfall For The Country: North India No Better

Key Takeaways:

• February may rank among the weakest winter rainfall months in recent years across India.
• Western disturbances will bring only brief, hill-focused snowfall and rain with minimal plains impact.
• Eastern, central, and southern regions continue to face severe seasonal rainfall deficits.
• Total winter rainfall deficiency could cross 40%, worsening recovery prospects before pre-monsoon.

February is the rainiest winter month for North India. However, winter rains have largely remained poor over the last six years. The countrywide deficiency was as high as 67% to 68% in 2021 and 2023. Last year also recorded an overall shortfall of 30% during the month.

Simultaneous decent rainfall over the plains and the mountains has been missing for many years. During 2022 and 2024, when the rains were slightly better, performance remained poor in Haryana and Punjab, respectively. Typical winter rainfall—both in spread and intensity—over the northern states has remained only on the wish list.

The ongoing month of February is unlikely to be different from past records and could be among the worst performers in the last few years.

There have been frequent passages of western disturbances across the mountains over the last two weeks. However, the associated weather activity has remained mild and confined to the hills. Two spells of snowfall and rain are likely in the mountains between 9–10 February and 16–19 February 2026. The plains may witness scattered, light weather activity around 10 February 2026, followed by a prolonged dry spell. The next spell in the third week of the month is again expected to remain limited to the hills.

Weather activity over the eastern states has remained very poor this season, and the region is largely deficit. Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh have remained almost completely dry between 1 January and 5 February 2026. The Northeast has also observed mostly dry conditions.

Central parts of the country show a large deficit, as the region lies far from the reach of western disturbances and systems moving across the southern peninsula. Central India is deficient by 77% rainfall, and the shortfall may increase further during February.

The Northeast Monsoon has already withdrawn from South India, while the pre-monsoon season has yet to begin. Weather activity is expected to remain poor during February. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are among the worst-affected states this season, with North and Coastal Karnataka facing similar conditions.

Overall, the country appears at risk of receiving very poor rainfall during the winter months. February is likely to perform worse than January, which recorded a 31% rainfall deficiency. The greater the deficiency, the harder it becomes to recover later. The accumulated shortfall for the current winter season may exceed 40% rainfall deficiency.