Image: Skymetweather.com/Canva
As of now, the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Gujarat, and the hilly states of North India. Partial retreat has commenced from Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. The monsoon is likely to vacate these states completely and also withdraw from Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Sikkim, West Bengal, Odisha, and Telangana within the next 24 hours. The withdrawal line is expected to reach 15°N along the West Coast and the interiors of the South Peninsula — a pre-requisite for the onset of the northeast monsoon. In its final phase, the southwest monsoon will withdraw from Northeast India by October 15, thereby closing the season on schedule.
The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is not attempted before September 1. This year, it commenced from the extreme western parts of Rajasthan on September 14, 2025. The withdrawal from the South Peninsula, and hence from the entire country, is announced only after October 1 when the regime of southwesterly winds undergoes a change. Last year, the monsoon withdrawal was complete on October 15, coinciding with the commencement of the northeast monsoon over Southeast India. The onset of the winter monsoon over the South Peninsula could mirror last year’s pattern, with a margin of ±2 days. Most parameters are aligning for a timely onset over southern parts.
The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon should not be interpreted as a total absence of rain from the respective regions. This is especially true for the coastal parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, where the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and the onset of the northeast monsoon can occur simultaneously — a phenomenon observed in past years. Even after the completion of withdrawal, Mumbai may receive light rain within a few days. A weather disturbance moving through lower latitudes, with a trough extending along the West Coast, may bring brief and light rain over Konkan and Goa. The second half of October is expected to be an active northeast monsoon phase for the southern sub-divisions.
