The depression over the East-Central Arabian Sea is still loitering over the region. The weather system, which formed over the Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region on 22nd October, has been leisurely sailing over the open waters of the ocean, moving in all possible directions. It is having a very unusual track, resulting in low predictability. The depression has now steadily moved northeastward in the past 24 hours and is likely to retain this track. Presently, the weather system is centered around 500 km south-southwest of Veraval and at a similar distance over the sea, abeam Mumbai.
The depression had a northeast-southwest oriented axis, penetrating right across parts of Saurashtra, Central Gujarat, and extending into West Madhya Pradesh. There have been moderate to heavy showers over East Rajasthan, Coastal Saurashtra, Central Gujarat, and Northwest Madhya Pradesh. The chief amounts of rainfall in the past 24 hours include Veraval–129 mm, Baroda–112 mm, Mahuva–74 mm, Kota–72 mm, Chittorgarh–68 mm, Bhilwara–88 mm, Sheopur–115 mm, and Gwalior–69 mm. More showers are likely, especially over Gujarat over the next 2–4 days.
As the depression moves closer to the coastline of Saurashtra and the Gulf of Cambay, weather activity will increase over Saurashtra and Central & South Gujarat. Light to moderate rainfall is expected over southwestern parts of Madhya Pradesh and extreme southeastern parts of Rajasthan. As the depression moves northeastward, it will enter an area of warmer sea surface, conducive to retaining its strength. It may not intensify significantly due to dry air entrainment and wind shear but will still be strong enough to give heavy rains over Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, particularly over Saurashtra and interior Gujarat between 30th October and 1st November 2025. The remnants of the cyclonic circulation will keep coming closer to the Saurashtra coastline and may even move over land as a weak perturbation after 1st November. A broad clearance is expected over the region after 5th November 2025.
