Low Pressure Area Forms Over Bay Of Bengal, Sat Image: CIMSS
Under the influence of a persisting cyclonic circulation, a low-pressure area has formed over the Southeast and adjoining South-Central Bay of Bengal. The system is centered around 11°N and 89°E, over the warm sea surface, with a well-marked low-level defined circulation and a massive cloud cluster over a large area. The low-pressure area will intensify into a depression in the next 24–36 hours and keep moving west-northwest. It is likely to get positioned over the South-Central and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal during this period. It will constantly keep moving closer to the coastline of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
There is a cold pool of water beyond the western periphery of the system, which is detrimental for its sustenance and growth. However, the weather system will track more northwest, away from the cooler surface. Once it crosses this hurdle, which is likely in the next 24 hours, the depression will race fast toward warm waters and favorable environmental conditions. During this process, it may develop into a cyclonic storm. While the system gains a latitude of over 12°N, it will encounter a zone of light to moderate wind shear and quite warm sea surface, carrying sufficient heat potential. The depression is likely to gain strength quickly over the Southwest Bay of Bengal. Accordingly, the threat of heavy rains looms large over Coastal Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The capital city Chennai will be at risk of heavy to very heavy rains between 26th and 28th October. The city, as such, will also have scattered rains before and after this window of intense rains. The rains will have the potential to disrupt normal life and communication. Low-lying areas, streets, and roads are likely to be flooded and waterlogged. The water bodies will become full to capacity and may even overflow, raising concern for the release of excess waters. Rail, road, and air operations may get simultaneously hit during this period, and more so on the upcoming Sunday and Monday. Exercise caution and prepare well for any eventuality.
