Progress Of Monsoon: Weak Rainfall During First Week
Satellite Image: MOSDAC
Key Takeaways:
- Southwest monsoon reached South Konkan ahead of schedule.
- Countrywide monsoon rainfall remains 22% below normal in early June.
- Weak pre-monsoon activity slowing active monsoon conditions over interiors.
- Fresh Bay of Bengal system needed for further monsoon advance inland.
Southwest monsoon onset was on 04th June over Kerala. The monsoon current has advanced along the West Coast quite fast and reached South Konkan (Sindhudurg), little ahead of schedule. Simultaneously, the monsoon stream has covered Tamil Nadu, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and parts of Rayalaseema region. The north-south oriented northeastern states like Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and the eastern outskirts of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam have also been covered. The monsoon pulse was strong along the Western Ghats but rather slow over the southern states of Tamil Nadu, interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Overall, the southwest monsoon has a shortfall of 22% rainfall in the first week of June 2026.
As per the weather bulletin, the southwest monsoon is likely to advance further to cover more parts of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and cover some parts of Telangana. Logically, irrespective of the region, the monsoon advancement need to be preceded by, at least, moderate strength of pre-monsoon activity for 2-3 days. Going by the monsoon standards, this activity has generally remained poor. The South Peninsula, where the monsoon current has covered a large area has been rain deficit by 3% during the first week of June. Despite heavy rainfall over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Goa, the overall shortfall indicate poor state of monsoon over the interiors of South Peninsula.
The onset of the monsoon over Kerala takes place under the influence of Arabian Sea branch. For active monsoon conditions over Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, some monsoon system is very essential over the Bay of Bengal. There is no weather system likely over the Bay of Bengal to accelerate the monsoon stream across southern parts. An east-west trough is likely from the Konkan Coast to North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, across Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Pre-monsoon showers are likely on either side of the trough between 10th and 11th June 2026. These showers should not be construed as part of monsoon activity. To take the monsoon further over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, interiors of Maharashtra, a fresh surge will be needed. As such, the daily monsoon rainfall is about 3mm in the first week, 4mm in the second week and rises to about 5mm or more, starting middle of the month. Active monsoon conditions will be needed to cope up with the countrywide daily rainfall of 5-6mm. An active weather system over the Bay of Bengal is considered very essential to take the monsoon further up, as per the scheduled timelines.
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